Market Update: Rates Inch Higher but Could Reverse the Trend with Upcoming Jobs Data

Blog posted On July 03, 2024

Mortgage rates have inched higher in recent weeks after starting June out with a nice winning streak. However, with the upcoming jobs reports, they could trend lower once again. Aside from inflation, jobs reports are the most influential set of economic data when it comes to mortgage rate trends. Weaker job markets tend to correlate to lower rates, and vice versa.

We’ve already gotten the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from May, which was released yesterday. After an underwhelming month in April, job openings bounced back in May, surpassing the expected number of openings by roughly 200,000 to reach a level of 8,140,000. However, arguably more important than JOLTS is the ADP nonfarm employment change. The JOLTS data lags by two months while the ADP nonfarm employment data is more current.

This morning, the ADP nonfarm employment reported a change of 150,000 in June. It was expected to be a little bit higher, so this could result in some lower-trending rates. However, much of the general weekly trend will depend on the employment situation reports scheduled for Friday.

Want to know more about today’s rate trends? Reach out!

Sources: Bloomberg,